2608005013
  • Open Access
  • Article

Mathematical Model of Co-Infection of Malaria and COVID-19 in Malaria-Endemic Population

  • Michael C. Anyanwu *,   
  • Emmanuel C. Duru

Received: 26 Jun 2026 | Revised: 14 Aug 2026 | Accepted: 24 Aug 2026 | Published: 04 Sep 2026

Abstract

Malaria and coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have been shown to exhibit clinical and pathological resemblances. The overlap in their characteristic symptoms led to the loss of many lives during the COVID-19 pandemic due to misdiagnosis and wrong treatment. In this paper, co-circulation and co-infection of malaria and coronavirus disease in a malaria-endemic population are modeled through a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations, and the impact of wrong treatments on the dynamics of the two diseases and their co-infection is determined. The disease-free equilibrium of the model is shown to be both locally and globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one. Sensitivity analysis reveals that wrong treatments positively impact the spread of malaria and COVID-19 in the population, which agrees with the result from numerical simulation. Moreover, numerical simulation shows that those infected with malaria dominate the infection space. This can be naturally attributed to the endemicity of malaria in the population.

References 

  • 1.

    Diabate, A.B.; Sangare, B.; Koutou, O. Optimal Control Analysis of a Mathematical Model of Malaria and COVID-19 Co-Infection Dynamics. J. Biol. Dyn. 2025, 19, 2568392. https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2025.2568392.

  • 2.

    World Health Organization Malaria. Available online: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/malaria (accessed on 4 March 2025).

  • 3.

    Duru, E.C.; Anyanwu, M.C.; Mbah, G.C.E. A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Effect of Misdiagnosis and Wrong Treatment in the Co-Circulation and Co-Infection of Malaria and Zika Virus Disease. Bull. Biomath. 2025, 3, 79–110. https://doi.org/10.59292/bulletinbiomath.1711811.

  • 4.

    Nancy, A.M.; Shichika, J.M.; Bii, A. Mathematical Modelling of Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Kenya: The Role of Seasonality, Drug Resistance, and Human Movement. Asian J. Adv. Res. Rep. 2025, 19, 456–468. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajarr/2025/v19i71111.

  • 5.

    Asamoah, I.; Adusei-Poku, M.; Vandyck-Sey, P.; et al. COVID-19 in Patients Presenting with Malaria-like Symptoms at a Primary Healthcare Facility in Accra, Ghana. PLOS ONE 2024, 19, e0298088. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0298088.

  • 6.

    Prabhu, S.R.; Ware, A.P.; Saadi, A.V.; et al. Malaria Epidemiology and COVID-19 Pandemic: Are They Interrelated? OMICS A J. Integr. Biol. 2022, 26, 179–188. https://doi.org/10.1089/omi.2021.0227.

  • 7.

    Konozy, E.H.E.; Osman, M.E.F.M.; Ghartey-Kwansah, G.; et al. The Striking Mimics between COVID-19 and Malaria: A Review. Front. Immunol. 2022, 13, 957913. https://doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2022.957913.

  • 8.

    Sardar, S.; Sharma, R.; Alyamani, T.Y.M.; et al. COVID-19 and Plasmodium Vivax Malaria Co-Infection. IDCases 2020, 21, e00879. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idcr.2020.e00879.

  • 9.

    Hussein, M.I.H.; Albashir, A.A.D.; Elawad, O.A.M.A.; et al. Malaria and COVID-19: Unmasking Their Ties. Malar. J. 2020, 19, 457. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-020-03541-w.

  • 10.

    Baba, I.A.; Rihan, F.A.; Hincal, E. Analyzing Co-Infection Dynamics: A Mathematical Approach Using Fractional Order Modeling and Laplace-Adomian Decomposition. J. Biosaf. Biosecur. 2024, 6, 113–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobb.2024.05.002.

  • 11.

    Boulaaras, S.; Yavuz, M.; Alrashedi, Y.; et al. Modeling the Co-Dynamics of Vector-Borne Infections with the Application of Optimal Control Theory. Discret. Contin. Dyn. Syst.-S 2025, 18, 1331–1352. https://doi.org/10.3934/dcdss.2024109.

  • 12.

    McArdle, A.J.; Turkova, A.; Cunnington, A.J. When Do Co-Infections Matter? Curr. Opin. Infect. Dis. 2018, 31, 209–215. https://doi.org/10.1097/qco.0000000000000447.

  • 13.

    Bolaji, B.; Onoja, T.; Agbata, C.; et al. Dynamical Analysis of HIV-TB Co-Infection Transmission Model in the Presence of Treatment for TB. Bull. Biomath. 2024, 2, 21–56. https://doi.org/10.59292/bulletinbiomath.2024002.

  • 14.

    Pusparani, A.; Henrina, J.; Cahyadi, A. Co-Infection of COVID-19 and Recurrent Malaria. J. Infect. Dev. Ctries. 2021, 15, 625–629. https://doi.org/10.3855/jidc.13793.

  • 15.

    Avusuglo, W.S.; Han, Q.; Woldegerima, W.A.; et al. Assessment of Bidirectional Impact of Stigmatization Induced Self-Medication on COVID-19 and Malaria Transmissions Using Mathematical Modeling: Nigeria as a Case Study. Math. Biosci. 2024, 376, 109249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109249.

  • 16.

    Mahajan, N.N.; Kesarwani, S.N.; Shinde, S.S.; et al. Co-Infection of Malaria and Dengue in Pregnant Women with SARS-CoV-2. Int. J. Gynecol. Obstet. 2020, 151, 459–462. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijgo.13415.

  • 17.

    Mohamed, A.H.; Eltyeb, E.; Said, B.; et al. COVID-19 and Malaria Co-Infection: A Systematic Review of Clinical Outcomes in Endemic Areas. PeerJ 2024, 12, e17160. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.17160.

  • 18.

    Lopez-Farfan, D.; Yerbanga, R.S.; Parres-Mercader, M.; et al. Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and Co-Infection with Malaria during the First Wave of the Pandemic (the Burkina Faso Case). Front. Public Health 2022, 10, 1048404. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.1048404.

  • 19.

    Carrion-Nessi, F.S.; Mendoza-Millan, D.L.; Omana-Avila, O.D.; et al. Plasmodium Vivax and SARS-CoV-2 Co-Infection in Venezuelan Pregnant Women: A Case Series. Malar. J. 2023, 22, 11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04442-4.

  • 20.

    Abioye, A.I.; Peter, O.J.; Ogunseye, H.A.; et al. Mathematical Model of COVID-19 in Nigeria with Optimal Control. Results Phys. 2021, 28, 104598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104598.

  • 21.

    Ayoade, A.A.; Ogunmiloro, O.M.; Oyedepo, T. Analysis of the Effect of Isolation on the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modelling Approach (R1). Comput. Methods Differ. Equ. 2025, 13, 123–141. https://doi.org/10.22034/cmde.2024.58127.2451.

  • 22.

    Bolaji, B.; Odionyenma, U.B.; Omede, B.I.; et al. Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of Omicron Variant of COVID-19 in Densely Populated City of Lagos in Nigeria. J. Niger. Soc. Phys. Sci. 2023, 5, 1055. https://doi.org/10.46481/jnsps.2023.1055.

  • 23.

    Iboi, E.A.; Sharomi, O.; Ngonghala, C.N.; et al. Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria. Math. Biosci. Eng. 2020, 17, 7192–7220. https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2020369.

  • 24.

    Ogundokun, R.O.; Lukman, A.F.; Kibria, G.B.M.; et al. Predictive Modelling of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases in Nigeria. Infect. Dis. Model. 2020, 5, 543–548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.08.003.

  • 25.

    Oke, I.I.; Oyebo, Y.T.; Fakoya, O.F.; et al. A Mathematical Model for COVID-19 Disease Transmission Dynamics with Impact of Saturated Treatment: Modeling, Analysis and Simulation. Open Access Libr. J. 2021, 8, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1107332.

  • 26.

    Ojo, M.M.; Doungmo Goufo, E.F. The Impact of COVID-19 on a Malaria Dominated Region: A Mathematical Analysis and Simulations. Alex. Eng. J. 2023, 65, 23–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2022.09.045.

  • 27.

    Ren, Y.; Xue, Y. Modeling and Optimal Control of COVID-19 and Malaria Co-Infection Based on Vaccination. Math. Model. Control. 2024, 4, 316–335. https://doi.org/10.3934/mmc.2024026.

  • 28.

    Hu, R.; Aziz, M.H.N.; Mohamed, N.A.; et al. Modeling and Analysis of Dynamical Behavior in a Fractional-Order COVID-19 Epidemic Model with Media Coverage: A Case Study of Malaysia. Alex. Eng. J. 2025, 127, 1081–1095. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2025.06.057.

  • 29.

    Akanni, J.; Ajao, S.; Ayoade, A.A.; et al. Analysis of Fractional-Order Model for COVID-19: Implications for Transmission, Hospitalisation, and Recovery Trends. Prog. Fract. Differ. Appl. 2025, 11, 467–489. https://doi.org/10.18576/pfda/110304.

  • 30.

    Abioye, A.I.; Peter, O.J.; Ogunseye, H.A.; et al. A Fractional-Order Mathematical Model for Malaria and COVID-19 Co-Infection Dynamics. Healthc. Anal. 2023, 4, 100210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.health.2023.100210.

  • 31.

    Hu, R.; Aziz, M.H.N.; Aruchunan, E.; et al. Modeling and Analysis of a Delayed Fractional Order COVID-19 SEIHRM Model with Media Coverage in Malaysia. Sci. Rep. 2025, 15, 25305. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-99389-8.

  • 32.

    Chitnis, N.; Hyman, J.M.; Cushing, J.M. Determining Important Parameters in the Spread of Malaria through the Sensitivity Analysis of a Mathematical Model. Bull. Math. Biol. 2008, 70, 1272–1296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-008-9299-0.

  • 33.

    Buonomo, B. Analysis of a Malaria Model with Mosquito Host Choice and Bed-Net Control. Int. J. Biomath. 2015, 8, 1550077. https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793524515500771.

  • 34.

    Zio, S.; Tougri, I.; Lamien, B. Propagation Du COVID19 Au Burkina Faso, Modelisation Bayesienne Et Quantification Des Incertitudes: Premiere Approche. Available online: https://fr.scribd.com/document/910223015/Covid19-Bf-Modelisation-Numerique-pdf-PDF (accessed on 12 June 2026).

  • 35.

    Linton, N.M.; Kobayashi, T.; Yang, Y.; et al. Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 538. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020538.

  • 36.

    Ngonghala, C.N.; Iboi, E.; Eikenberry, S.; et al. Mathematical Assessment of the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Curtailing the 2019 Novel Coronavirus. Math. Biosci. 2020, 325, 108364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364.

  • 37.

    Tchoumi, S.Y.; Diagne, M.L.; Rwezaura, H.; et al. Malaria and COVID-19 Co-Dynamics: A Mathematical Model and Optimal Control. Appl. Math. Model. 2021, 99, 294–327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2021.06.016.

  • 38.

    Barley, K.; Murillo, D.; Roudenko, S.; et al. A Mathematical Model of HIV and Malaria Co-Infection in Sub-Saharan Africa. J. AIDS Clin. Res 2012, 3. https://doi.org/10.4172/2155-6113.1000173.

  • 39.

    Osman, S.; Makinde, O.D. A Mathematical Model for Coinfection of Listeriosis and Anthrax Diseases. Int. J. Math. Math. Sci. 2018, 2018, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/1725671.

  • 40.

    Bonyah, E.; Khan, M.A.; Okosun, K.O.; et al. On the Co-Infection of Dengue Fever and Zika Virus. Optim. Control. Appl. Methods 2019, 40, 394–421. https://doi.org/10.1002/oca.2483.

  • 41.

    Van Den Driessche, P.; Watmough, J. Reproduction Numbers and Sub-Threshold Endemic Equilibria for Compartmental Models of Disease Transmission. Math. Biosci. 2002, 180, 29–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0025-5564(02)00108-6.

  • 42.

    Castillo-Chavev, C.; Feng, Z.; Huang, W. On the Computation of $R 0$ and Its Role on Global Stability. Math. Approch. Emerg. Reemerging Infect. Dis. 2001, 1, 25.

Share this article:
How to Cite
Anyanwu, M. C.; Duru, E. C. Mathematical Model of Co-Infection of Malaria and COVID-19 in Malaria-Endemic Population. Applied Mathematics and Statistics 2026, 3 (2), 18. https://doi.org/10.53941/ams.2026.100018.
RIS
BibTex
Copyright & License
article copyright Image
Copyright (c) 2026 by the authors.