Technology–Finance Dual-Engine Dynamics: A Time-Varying Causality Analysis of the Global Semiconductor Index and Silver Prices

Xinchun Shi; Tao Zhu

Abstract

This study examines the causal relationship between the semiconductor index and silver prices, against the backdrop of the industry’s growth, silver’s dual attributes, and increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility. Using monthly data from August 2012 to January 2026 and a bootstrap rolling-window causality test, we find a significant time-varying causal link. Specifically, a unidirectional causality from the semiconductor index (RSOX) to silver prices (RSP) is identified in periods such as June–August 2020, November 2022–January 2023, September–October 2024, and July 2025–January 2026. This effect is positive under conditions of ample liquidity and growth optimism but turns weakly negative during times of high policy uncertainty and geopolitical tension. Conversely, a weak positive causal effect from RSP to RSOX is observed from June to August 2016, likely driven by risk-aversion sentiment following events like the Brexit referendum and expectations of accommodative monetary policy. These findings suggest that silver has become a strategic asset with dual sensitivity to technological cycles and financial sentiment, offering important implications for managing critical resource supply chains.

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