Sensitivity Analysis in Thermal Structure and Thermochronology Calculations

Stephanie Sparks; Kip Hodges

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis should be an essential part of quantitative studies in the geosciences. It serves as an important first step in evaluating our confidence in the results of a numerical calculation, and it helps us identify what input parameters should be high-priority targets for further research to improve confidence in our modeling results. Here, we explore the fundamentals of sensitivity analysis as it applies to calculations related to the thermal structure of the lithosphere and thermochronologic calculations. After presenting simple examples using well-known approaches, we compare the results obtained using a less familiar approach: the Taguchi Method. Although the Taguchi Method is underutilized in the geosciences, it is often used in process engineering to reduce the number of experiments necessary to determine the sensitivity of systems to large numbers of interdependent variables. We demonstrate that the Taguchi Method yields sensitivity rankings comparable to those produced by more conventional approaches, while requiring substantially fewer model runs. This efficiency makes it particularly well-suited to the analysis of complex thermal-kinematic models, where high dimensionality and long compute times often limit systematic uncertainty evaluation. The method’s ability to identify dominant sources of uncertainty across parameter types provides a practical framework for guiding future data collection efforts.

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