2506000811
  • Open Access
  • Review
Impact of Floods and Droughts on Food Security in Nepal: A Systematic Review
  • Kumar Aryal 1, *,   
  • Dhiraj Pradhananga 2,   
  • Deepak Aryal 1

Received: 01 Apr 2025 | Revised: 22 May 2025 | Accepted: 23 Jun 2025 | Published: 25 Jun 2025

Abstract

This study presents a systematic review of 53 peer-reviewed articles published between 1979 and 2024 to evaluate the impacts of floods and droughts on food security in Nepal. This review employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) framework to systematically evaluate the impact of hydroclimatic extremes on the four aspects of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability, going beyond simple narrative synthesis. The review reveals increasing trends in the frequency and severity of both floods and droughts, with substantial impacts on agricultural productivity, market access, infrastructure, and rural livelihoods. Compound events, where floods and droughts co-occur or follow one another, further destabilize food systems. Descriptive analysis showed that most studies were concentrated in recent years, with a dominant focus on floods over droughts, and limited integration of both hazards with food security outcomes. The majority of studies (74%) employed quantitative methods, but few examined the combined socio-environmental drivers of food insecurity. The review identifies significant gaps in the current literature. It highlights the inadequate incorporation of socioeconomic variables within climate risk models, a deficiency in the availability of real-time and high-resolution data, the insufficient representation of marginalized populations, and the lack of longitudinal studies examining nutrition and health outcomes. A limited number of studies specifically focus on the various ways hydroclimatic extremes influence food security. This review offers new perspectives by thematically categorizing impacts based on food security dimensions and emphasizes the critical need for localized, integrated, and adaptable policy measures. The results provide a foundation for more thorough research and strategic planning aimed at improving resilience to climate-related food insecurity in Nepal.

References 

  • 1.
    Shrestha, A.B.; Aryal, R. Climate change in Nepal and its impact on Himalayan glaciers. Reg. Environ. Chang. 2011, 11, 65–77. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0174-9.
  • 2.
    Shrestha, B.B. Assessment of Flood Hazard and Agriculture Damage Under Climate Change in the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal. Int. J. Environ. 2019, 8, 55–69. https://doi.org/10.3126/ije.v8i2.25508.
  • 3.
    Shrestha, S.; Bajracharya, A.R.; Babel, M.S. Assessment of risks due to climate change for the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project in Nepal. Clim. Risk Manag. 2016, 14, 27–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.08.002.
  • 4.
    Bocchiola, D.; Brunetti, L.; Soncini, A.; et al. Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and food security in the Himalayas: A case study in Nepal. Agric. Syst. 2019, 171, 113–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.01.008.
  • 5.
    Chemjong, B.; Yadav, K.C. Food Security in Nepal: A Review. Rupantaran Multidiscip. J. 2020, 4, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.3126/rupantaran.v4i1.34015.
  • 6.
    Hamal, K.; Sharma, S.; Khadka, N.; et al. Assessment of drought impacts on crop yields across Nepal during 1987–2017. Meteorol. Appl. 2020, 27, e1950. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1950.
  • 7.
    Pandey, V.P.; Shrestha, D.; Adhikari, M. Characterizing natural drivers of water-induced disasters in a rain-fed watershed: Hydro-climatic extremes in the Extended East Rapti Watershed, Nepal. J. Hydrol. 2021, 598, 126383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126383.
  • 8.
    IPCC. Climate Change 2022–Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1st ed.; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.
  • 9.
    Poudel, D.D.; Funakawa, S.; Shinjo, H. Household Perceptions about the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in the Mountainous Region of Nepal. Sustainability 2017, 9, 641. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9040641.
  • 10.
    Kumar, A.; Thapa, G.; Mishra, A.K.; et al. Assessing food and nutrition security in Nepal: Evidence from diet diversity and food expenditure patterns. Food Secur. 2020, 12, 327–354. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-019-01004-y.
  • 11.
    Poudel, D.D. Asta-Ja Framework: A Peaceful Approach to Food, Water, Climate, and Environmental Security Coupled with Sustainable Economic Development and Social Inclusion in Nepal. Strateg. Plan. Energy Environ. 2023, 39, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.13052/spee1048-4236.391412.
  • 12.
    Bohlinger, P.; Sorteberg, A. A comprehensive view on trends in extreme precipitation in Nepal and their spatial distribution. Int. J. Climatol. 2018, 38, 1833–1845. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5299.
  • 13.
    DHM. Observed Climate Trend Analysis in the Districts and Physiographic Regions of Nepal (1971–2014); Department of Hydrology and Meteorology: Kathmandu, Nepal, 2017. Available online: https://www.dhm.gov.np/climate-services/climate-publications (accessed on 4 November 2020).
  • 14.
    Shrestha, D.; Sharma, S.; Hamal, K.; et al. Spatial Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events and Its Trend in Nepal. Appl. Ecol. Environ. Sci. 2020, 9, 58–66. https://doi.org/10.12691/aees-9-1-8.
  • 15.
    Hamal, K.; Sharma, S.; Talchabhadel, R.; et al. Trends in the Diurnal Temperature Range over the Southern Slope of Central Himalaya: Retrospective and Prospective Evaluation. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 1683. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121683.
  • 16.
    FAO. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006. Available online: https://www.fao.org/4/a0750e/a0750e00.htm (accessed on 26 October 2024).
  • 17.
    FAO. FAO Strategy on Climate Change 2022–2031. Available online: https://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/cc2274en (accessed on 20 June 2025).
  • 18.
    FAO. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003. Available online: https://www.fao.org/4/j0083e/j0083e00.htm (accessed on 31 October 2024).
  • 19.
    Shaw, D.J. World Food Summit, 1996. In World Food Security: A History Since 1945; Palgrave Macmillan: London, UK, 2007; pp. 347–360. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230589780_35.
  • 20.
    Shively, G.E.; Gars, J.; Sununtnasuk, C. A review of food security and human nutrition issues in Nepal. Work. Pap. 2011. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.116190.
  • 21.
    Karki, R.; Gurung, A. An Overview of Climate Change and Its Impact on Agriculture: A Review from Least Developing Country, Nepal. Int. J. Environ. 2012, 2, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.5923/j.ije.20120202.03.
  • 22.
    Bocchiola, D. Agriculture and food security under climate change in Nepal. Adv. Plants Agric. Res. 2017, 6, 194–199. https://doi.org/10.15406/apar.2017.06.00237.
  • 23.
    NSO. Nepal Living Standards Survey 2022–2023; National Statistics Office: Kathmandu, Nepal, 2024. Available online: https://nsonepal.gov.np/content/12061/12061-nepal-living-standards-survey/ (accessed on 18 October 2024).
  • 24.
    NDHS. Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2022-Key Indicators. Ministry of Health and Population, Nepal; New ERA; and ICF. 2022. Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2022: Key Indicators Report. Kathmandu, Nepal: New Era, Nepal. Available online: http://www.newera.com.np/report/nepal-demographic-and-health-survey-2022-key-indicators/ (accessed on 18 October 2024).
  • 25.
    Concern Worldwide; Welthungerhilfe; International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV). Global Hunger Index 2024: How Gender Justice Can Advance Climate Resilience and Zero Hunger. Available online: https://www.globalhungerindex.org/ (accessed on 18 October 2024).
  • 26.
    Moher, D.; Liberati, A.; Tetzlaff, J.; et al. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses: The PRISMA Statement. PLoS Med. 2009, 6, e1000097. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000097.
  • 27.
    Bista, R.B. Examining Determinants of Household Vulnerability in Nepal: Descriptive Statistics Analysis of Flood Disasters. Patan Pragya 2022, 11, 139–152. https://doi.org/10.3126/pragya.v11i02.52111.
  • 28.
    Awasthi, R.P.; Owen, J. Observed Climate Extreme in Nepal. Geogr. Base 2020, 7, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.3126/tgb.v7i0.34262.
  • 29.
    Singh, R.; Pandey, V.P.; Kayastha, S.P. Hydro-climatic extremes in the Himalayan watersheds: A case of the Marshyangdi Watershed, Nepal. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2021, 143, 131–158. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03401-2.
  • 30.
    Randell, H.; Jiang, C.; Liang, X.-Z.; et al. Food insecurity and compound environmental shocks in Nepal: Implications for a changing climate. World Dev. 2021, 145, 105511. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105511.
  • 31.
    Duwal, S.; Liu, D.; Pradhan, P.M. Flood susceptibility modeling of the Karnali river basin of Nepal using different machine learning approaches. Geomat. Nat. Hazards Risk 2023, 14, 2217321. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2217321.
  • 32.
    World Bank. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Available online: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/ (accessed on 27 May 2024).
  • 33.
    Adhikari, T.; Panthee, S. Application of Hydrodynamic (HEC–RAS) Model for Extreme Flood Analysis in Far-West Province: A case study of Chamelia River Basin, Darchula District, Nepal. J. Geoinform. Nepal 2020, 19, 9–15. https://doi.org/10.3126/njg.v19i1.50961.
  • 34.
    Yogacharya, K.; Gautam, D. Floods in Nepal: Genesis, Magnitude, Frequency and Consequences. ResearchGate 2008. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2376.8489.
  • 35.
    Aryal, D.; Wang, L.; Adhikari, T.R.; et al. A Model-Based Flood Hazard Mapping on the Southern Slope of Himalaya. Water 2020, 12, 540. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020540.
  • 36.
    Subedi, B.; Jha, P.C.; Gautam, N.; et al. Comparative Study of Flood and Long-term Mean Monthly Flow Estimation Approaches: Case Studies of Six Basins in Nepal. Geogr. Base 2022, 9, 15–38. https://doi.org/10.3126/tgb.v9i1.55425.
  • 37.
    Chhetri, T.B.; Dhital, Y.P.; Tandong, Y.; et al. Observations of heavy rainfall and extreme flood events over Banke-Bardiya districts of Nepal in 2016–2017. Prog. Disaster Sci. 2020, 6, 100074. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100074.
  • 38.
    Bista, R. The Impact of Vulnerability and Income distribution on Inequality and Poverty: Analysis of Flood and landslides in Vulnerable Locations of Nepal. Forum Soc. Econ. 2020, 1–12.
  • 39.
    Rai, C.M.; Chhetri, R.; Dahal, B.P.; et al. Analysis of rainfall and return periods to assess flood risks in hilly areas of Nepal. J. Geom. 2020, 9, 1–12.
  • 40.
    Devkota, R.; Bhattarai, U.; Devkota, L.; et al. Assessing the past and adapting to future floods: A hydro-social analysis. Clim. Chang. 2020, 163, 1065–1082. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02909-w.
  • 41.
    Rijal, S.; Rimal, B.; Sloan, S. Flood Hazard Mapping of a Rapidly Urbanizing City in the Foothills (Birendranagar, Surkhet) of Nepal. Land 2018, 7, 60. https://doi.org/10.3390/land7020060.
  • 42.
    Acharya, B.; Joshi, B. Flood frequency analysis for an ungauged Himalayan river basin using different methods: A case study of Modi Khola, Parbat, Nepal. Meteorol. Hydrol. Water Manag. 2020, 8, 46–51. https://doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/131092.
  • 43.
    Upadhyaya, B.R.; Gajurel, A.P.; Thapa, P.B.; et al. Flood hazard modelling using HEC-RAS in the Pathariya Khola, Far-western Nepal. J. Nepal Geol. Soc. 2023, 66, 119–130. https://doi.org/10.3126/jngs.v66i01.57957.
  • 44.
    Bagale, D.; Sigdel, M.; Aryal, D. Drought Monitoring over Nepal for the Last Four Decades and Its Connection with Southern Oscillation Index. Water 2021, 13, 3411. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13233411.
  • 45.
    Sharma, S.; Hamal, K.; Khadka, N.; et al. Projected Drought Conditions over Southern Slope of the Central Himalaya Using CMIP6 Models. Earth Syst. Environ. 2021, 5, 849–859. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00254-1.
  • 46.
    Aryal, A.; Maharjan, M.; Talchabhadel, R.; et al. Characterizing Meteorological Droughts in Nepal: A Comparative Analysis of Standardized Precipitation Index and Rainfall Anomaly Index. Earth 2022, 3, 409–432. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth3010025.
  • 47.
    Kafle, H. Spatial and Temporal Variation of Drought in Far and Mid Western Regions of Nepal: Time Series Analysis (1982–2012). Nepal J. Sci. Technol. 2015, 15, 31–40. https://doi.org/10.3126/njst.v15i2.12118.
  • 48.
    Lobell, D.B.; Field, C.B. Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 2007, 2, 014002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002.
  • 49.
    Wang, S.Y.; Yoon, J.-H.; Gillies, R.; et al. What Caused the Winter Drought in Western Nepal during Recent Years? J. Clim. 2013, 26, 8241–8256. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00800.1.
  • 50.
    Hamal, K.; Sharma, S.; Pokharel, B.; et al. Changing pattern of drought in Nepal and associated atmospheric circulation. Atmos. Res. 2021, 262, 105798. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105798.
  • 51.
    Khatiwada, K.R.; Pandey, V.P. Characterization of hydro-meteorological drought in Nepal Himalaya: A case of Karnali River Basin. Weather Clim. Extrem. 2019, 26, 100239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100239.
  • 52.
    Baniya, B.; Tang, Q.; Xu, X.; et al. Spatial and Temporal Variation of Drought Based on Satellite Derived Vegetation Condition Index in Nepal from 1982–2015. Sensors 2019, 19, 430. https://doi.org/10.3390/s19020430.
  • 53.
    Dahal, P.; Shrestha, M.L.; Panthi, J.; et al. Modeling the future impacts of climate change on water availability in the Karnali River Basin of Nepal Himalaya. Environ. Res. 2020, 185, 109430. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109430.
  • 54.
    Pandey, R.; Bardsley, D.K. An application of the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale to assess food security in rural communities of Nepal. Asia Pac. Policy Stud. 2019, 6, 130–150. https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.270.
  • 55.
    Regmi, H.R.; Rijal, K.; Joshi, G.; et al. Assessing Determinants of the Per Capita Food Expenditure from Household Expenditure: A Prospect of Food Security in Nepal. Int. J. Sci. Basic Appl. Res. 2019, 48, 116–123.
  • 56.
    NPC. Nepal Thematic Report on Food Security and Nutrition 2013. Available online: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://dohs.gov.np/wp-content/uploads/chd/Nutrition/Food_and_Nutrition_Thematic_Report_2013.pdf (accessed on 7 December 2024).
  • 57.
    KC, J.; Bist, A.; Rawal, D.; et al. Hunger Level and Factors Associated with Household Food Security in Nepal: Analysis of Finding from Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2016. J. Food Secur. 2016, 6, 44–53.
  • 58.
    Bhandari, P. Regional Variation in Food Security in Nepal. Dhaulagiri J. Sociol. Anthropol. 2018, 12, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.3126/dsaj.v12i0.22174.
  • 59.
    Kumar, A.; Kumar, P.; Joshi, P.K. Food Consumption Pattern and Dietary Diversity in Nepal: Implications for Nutrition Security. Indian J. Hum. Dev. 2016, 10, 397–413. https://doi.org/10.1177/0973703017698899.
  • 60.
    Pandey, R. The State of Food (In)Security in the Trans-Himalaya, Upper-Mustang, Nepal. Dhaulagiri J. Sociol. Anthropol. 2016, 10, 92–122. https://doi.org/10.3126/dsaj.v10i0.15882.
  • 61.
    Joshi, G.R. Household food security: Trends and determinants in mountainous districts of Nepal. Future Food: J. Food Agric. Soc. 2017, 5, 42–55.
  • 62.
    Neupane, N.; Paudel, S.; Sapkota, R.; et al. Enhancing the resilience of food production systems for food and nutritional security under climate change in Nepal. Front. Sustain. Food Syst. 2022, 6, 968998. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2022.968998.
  • 63.
    Thapa, S.; Hussain, A. Climate change and high-altitude food security: A small-scale study from the Karnali region in Nepal. Clim. Dev. 2021, 13, 713–724. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1855099.
  • 64.
    Gartaula, H.; Patel, K.; Johnson, D.; et al. From food security to food wellbeing: Examining food security through the lens of food wellbeing in Nepal's rapidly changing agrarian landscape. Agric. Hum. Values 2017, 34, 573–589. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-016-9740-1.
  • 65.
    Gautam, D.K.; Dugar, S. Improving Flood Forecasting in Karnali River Basin of Nepal Using Rainfall—Runoff Model and Complementary Error Model. IDRiM J. 2020, 9, 21–48. Available online: https://www.idrimjournal.com/article/11832-improving-flood-forecasting-in-karnali-river-basin-of-nepal-using-rainfall-runoff-model-and-complementary-error-model/stats/all/pageviews (accessed on 31 July 2024).
  • 66.
    Talchabhadel, R.; Shakya, N.M.; Dahal, V.; et al. Rainfall runoff modelling for flood forecasting (a case study on west rapti watershed). J. Flood Eng. 2015, 6, 53–61.
  • 67.
    Bajracharya, S.R.; Shrestha, M.S.; Shrestha, A.B. Assessment of high-resolution satellite rainfall estimation products in a streamflow model for flood prediction in the Bagmati basin, Nepal. J. Flood Risk Manag. 2017, 10, 5–16. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12133.
  • 68.
    Sigdel, M.; Ikeda, M. Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Drought in Nepal using Standardized Precipitation Index and its Relationship with Climate Indices. J. Hydrol. Meteorol. 2010, 7, 59–74. https://doi.org/10.3126/jhm.v7i1.5617.
  • 69.
    Bista, N.; Mahat, D.; Manandhar, S.; et al. Analyzing Trend and Pattern of Agricultural Drought: A Case Study of Karnali and Sudurpashchim Provinces. J. Geoinform. Nepal 2021, 20, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.3126/njg.v20i1.39470.
  • 70.
    Khadka, D.; Pathak, D. Climate change projection for the marsyangdi river basin, Nepal using statistical downscaling of GCM and its implications in geodisasters. Geoenviron. Disasters 2016, 3, 13. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-016-0050-0.
  • 71.
    Maharjan, K.L.; Joshi, N.P. Determinants of household food security in Nepal: A binary logistic regression analysis. J. Mt. Sci. 2011, 8, 403–413. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-011-2001-2.
Share this article:
How to Cite
Aryal, K.; Pradhananga, D.; Aryal, D. Impact of Floods and Droughts on Food Security in Nepal: A Systematic Review. Water Scarcity and Drought 2025, 1 (1), 2.
RIS
BibTex
Copyright & License
article copyright Image
Copyright (c) 2025 by the authors.