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Spatial Assessment of Dry-Spell Hazards in Spain: Toward an Operational Climate Service

  • Amar Halifa-Marin 1, 2, *,   
  • S. Beguería 2, 3,   
  • F. Reig 1, 2,   
  • A. Royo-Aranda 1, 2,   
  • M. Arretxea 4,   
  • M. Gil-Guallar 2, 3,   
  • B. Latorre 2, 3,   
  • A. El Kenawy 1, 2,   
  • M. Franquesa 1, 2,   
  • M. Adell-Michavila 1, 2,   
  • A. Crespillo 1, 2,   
  • D. Pérez-Pajuelo 1, 2,   
  • F. Domínguez-Castro 1, 2,   
  • J. M. Gutiérrez 5,   
  • C. Azorin-Molina 6,   
  • L. Gimeno 7, 8, 9,   
  • R. Nieto 7, 8, 9,   
  • S. M. Vicente-Serrano 1, 2

Received: 16 Jun 2025 | Revised: 09 Sep 2025 | Accepted: 25 Sep 2025 | Published: 09 Oct 2025

Abstract

This study introduces the first high-resolution hazard probability maps for prolonged dry spells across Spain, marking a significant advancement toward a national climate service for drought extremes. Using long-term daily precipitation records from a dense network of meteorological stations and incorporating high-resolution topographic data, the methodology combines the fit of the dry spell series with a Generalized Pareto Distribution with universal kriging to spatially interpolate distribution parameters. The resulting maps provide robust and spatially continuous estimates of the likelihood and return periods of extreme dry spell durations, with strong validation against empirical station-based data. Our results reveal distinct spatial patterns in dry spell occurrence across Spain, with marked north-south gradients, highlighting the prevalence and severity of extended dry spells in southern and southeastern regions. Beyond the scientific contribution, the study delivers a fully operational, interactive online platform “https://rachas-secas.csic.es/ (accessed on 29 September 2025)” that allows end users to query localized drought hazards probabilities and return levels, supporting informed decision-making in sectors such as agriculture, water resource management, and ecosystem conservation. The flexible design of our employed methodological approach also offers potential for adaptation and replication in other regions globally, especially where dry spells pose significant socio-economic and environmental risks.

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Halifa-Marin, A.; Beguería, S.; Reig, F.; Royo-Aranda, A.; Arretxea, M.; Gil-Guallar, M.; Latorre, B.; Kenawy, A. E.; Franquesa, M.; Adell-Michavila, M.; Crespillo, A.; Pérez-Pajuelo, D.; Domínguez-Castro, F.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Azorin-Molina, C.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M. Spatial Assessment of Dry-Spell Hazards in Spain: Toward an Operational Climate Service. Water Scarcity and Drought 2025, 1 (1), 4.
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