Assessing Long-Term Forest Fragmentation and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) Dynamics along the Proposed China-Nepal Railway Corridor

Madan Kumar Khadka; Zhiming Zhang

Abstract

Forest fragmentation and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) change are major drivers of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, particularly in landscapes undergoing infrastructure expansion. This study evaluates long-term LULC dynamics and forest structural fragmentation within the proposed China-Nepal railway corridor across the districts of Rasuwa, Nuwakot, and Kathmandu from 1990 to 2020. LULC classification identified eight major categories: forest, shrubland, grassland, agricultural area, barren area, water body, snow/glacier, and built-up area. A transition matrix approach was applied to quantify class conversions, while forest fragmentation patterns were assessed using spatial metrics, including edge, core, and perforated forest components. Results indicate that forest cover declined between 1990 and 2000, followed by partial recovery through 2020. Despite this recovery, fragmentation metrics reveal an increase in edge and perforated forest areas and fluctuations in core forest extent, suggesting structural reconfiguration of forest landscapes. Substantial forest persistence was observed alongside measurable transitions to agricultural and built-up land uses, highlighting dynamic landscape change rather than continuous forest loss. By integrating multi-decadal LULC transition analysis with spatial fragmentation assessment, this study establishes a structural baseline for the railway corridor prior to major infrastructure implementation. The findings provide spatially explicit evidence to support future environmental monitoring and informed landscape planning in ecologically sensitive Himalayan regions.

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