Uneven Diversification and Structural Robustness across Global Meat-Trade Networks

Kun Sun (孙堃); Fengyin Xiong (熊凤吟)

Abstract

Strengthening the resilience of global agrifood systems to external shocks is a central challenge for food security. While international trade can buffer localized supply shortfalls, heavy reliance on major exporters can simultaneously propagate systemic disruptions across global meat markets. Growth in network connectivity does not necessarily translate into diversified sourcing, and resilience may vary markedly across livestock products. Here we reconstruct physical trade networks for bovine, swine, poultry and sheep–goat meat over 2002–2024. Traded quantity nearly doubled from 21.4 to 42.5 million tonnes, yet no product showed simultaneous diversification of global export supply and importer-level sourcing. Persistent structural shifts were detected in 13 of 16 product–indicator series, while event-aligned responses to animal-disease outbreaks and COVID-19 varied across products and network dimensions. In 2024, removing 10% of exporters at random preserved about 90% of import quantities, whereas targeted removal of the largest suppliers preserved only 6–13%, and robustness improved over time only for poultry. Safeguarding global meat supply may require commodity- and importer-specific diversification away from dominant trade corridors to mitigate immediate structural vulnerability.

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