Nutrient Balance–Based Assessment of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Bearing Capacity in Shandong Farmlands

Zhuoya Lv; Minglu Zhang; Qing Xu; Jiayi Li; Santanu Mukherjee; Yukai Wang; Mohammed Ali Alshehri; Salah F. Abou-Elwafa; Tao Zhang

Abstract

Recycling organic nutrient resources is important for reducing dependence on synthetic fertilizers and improving nutrient management in integrated crop–livestock food systems. Using the NUFER model, official statistics, published parameters, and field-survey data, this study quantified the temporal and spatial patterns of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) bearing capacity in the agricultural food system of Shandong Province from 1994 to 2018 and at the county level in Liaocheng City in 2019. In this study, N/P bearing capacity refers exclusively to an operational organic nutrient supply–demand ratio rather than environmental bearing capacity. Results reveal a general downward trend in N/P bearing capacity, accompanied by significant spatial variations. The bearing capacity was positively correlated with livestock density and farming structure, whereas negatively correlated with per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and urbanization rates, and exhibited a quadratic linear relationship with cropping structure. Detailed regional analysis indicates that the N bearing capacity in Dongchangfu District, Linqing City, and Guan County of Liaocheng’s food system fall below 1, indicating that the modeled potentially recyclable organic N supply was lower than the corresponding net crop-product N demand. In the other counties, the modeled organic N supply exceeded this demand on a theoretical mass basis. In Gaotang County, Chiping District, Dong’e County, and Yanggu County, P bearing capacity exceeded 1, reaching 3.16 in Yanggu County, indicating that potentially recyclable organic P exceeded crop-product P removal in quantitative terms. Moran’s I test showed no statistically significant overall spatial autocorrelation among the county-level units.

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