Flood-Driven Dengue Risk under Climate Change: A Narrative Review

Qiao Liu; Jue Liu

Abstract

Climate change has been associated with increasing extreme precipitation and flood events, potentially creating conditions conducive to the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever. This narrative review synthesizes current evidence on the mechanisms linking climate-driven flooding to dengue outbreaks, the spatiotemporal epidemiological patterns observed across regions, and emerging methodological approaches for prediction and prevention. Flood disasters influence dengue transmission through interconnected ecological, climatic, and socio-environmental pathways. Flooding can disrupt existing mosquito habitats while subsequently creating conditions that may generate abundant stagnant water in artificial containers and debris, facilitating the proliferation of Aedes mosquitoes, depending on local ecological and structural contexts. At the same time, extreme rainfall often coincides with elevated temperatures, accelerating mosquito development and viral replication. Flood-related disruptions to water supply, sanitation infrastructure, and housing conditions may further increase human exposure, particularly in densely populated urban settings and vulnerable communities. Epidemiological studies indicate that the flood–dengue relationship frequently exhibits nonlinear and delayed effects, with outbreaks emerging weeks to months after flooding events. Advances in statistical modeling, spatial analysis, and machine learning have improved the capacity to characterize these dynamics and support climate-informed early warning systems. Strengthening integrated surveillance, environmental management, and climate-resilient public health interventions will be critical to mitigating dengue risks under intensifying climate change.

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