The Long-Term Survival of Human Civilization: A Science-Based Paradigm

Taras V. Gerya; Robert J. Stern; Fred Turner; Sabin Roman

doi:10.63335/j.hp.2025.0022

Abstract

Recent studies of the likelihood of intelligent life in our galaxy suggest that we may be the only technological civilization. This imposes a profound responsibility on us to safeguard the resilient future of intelligence and technology in the galaxy. Therefore, ensuring that our civilization endures for millions of years is a prime scientific and moral priority. Our current influence on Earth’s systems is undeniable, yet it remains superficial compared to the planet’s long-term biogeodynamical evolution processes. By studying Earth’s deep past and thinking on geological timescales, we can learn how to better navigate the deep future. At present, a guiding science-based paradigm for long-term survival of human civilization is missing and the research of the Earth-Life-Human system future focuses on relatively short-term timescales (decades, centuries). Here, we formulate the missing paradigm by presenting four core theses and studying their cultural, scientific and societal consequences. We begin with our motivation---that ours may be the only technologically advanced civilization in the galaxy and thus is precious. Next, we explore the greatest implication of our uniqueness---that we have a duty to ensure the long-term survival of our civilization, for the sake of the galaxy as well as our descendants. We then explore ways to do this, by consciously aligning civilization with solid Earth tempos and cycles. Finally, we propose “Future Dynamics”---a new interdisciplinary field focused on ensuring civilization’s long-term survival by defining, modeling and quantifying potential future trajectories of the coupled Earth-Life-Human system over geological timescales.

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