The Impact Mechanism of Urban Green New Quality Productive Forces on the Equity of Energy Transition

Yude Wu; Yujiao Shang; Xin Zhao

doi:10.63335/j.hp.2025.0024

Abstract

Against the backdrop of global sustainable development and energy transition, energy justice has gained increasing prominence. Drawing upon data from 188 cities spanning 2010–2023, this study employs fixed effects regression and double machine learning approaches to examine the impact of green new quality productive forces on just energy transitions. The study constructs a more scientifically rigorous integrated evaluation framework. Fixed effects control for individual variations, while double machine learning addresses endogeneity and high-dimensionality issues in causal inference. This dual approach enhances the robustness of findings. Results indicate that green new quality productive forces significantly advance just energy transitions by increasing renewable energy proportions and narrowing urban-rural energy consumption disparities. Both methodologies reveal stable positive effects, with coefficients of 0.6058 and 0.5569 respectively, significant at the 1% level. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals pronounced regional disparities: coefficients reach 0.6039 and 0.6789 in eastern and developed regions, whereas western and less developed areas register only 0.2139 and 0.1334. Moreover, results remained highly consistent following a series of endogeneity and robustness tests. Based on these findings, this paper proposes accelerating the development of green new quality productive forces, optimizing energy structures, advancing urban-rural energy equity, and implementing differentiated regional policies to provide scientific support for sustainable urban development.

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