Critical Metals: The Driving Force Behind Evolving Geopolitical Strategies in an Energy-Hungry World

Daniel Müller; David I. Groves; M. Santosh; Cheng Xue Yang

doi:10.63335/j.hp.2026.0038

Highlights

Currently demand exceeds supply for some critical metals, rapidly leading to global geopolitical tensions.
Survival of modern industrialized civilization requires conservation of critical metals via commercial recycling.
Increased energy to exploit metals with increased waste poses additional environmental issue.
Humanity is at a critical energy crossroads which needs rapid resolution.

Abstract

Critical metals are integral to mineral deposits that formed periodically over thousands to millions of years and are thus non-renewable resources. They are extremely rare with mines representing much less than 1% of the Earth’s land surface. Due to an almost 10 times increase in world population since the Industrial Revolution, economic geologists have identified that there are finite resources of critical metals that can be mined economically with these facing exhaustion in an increasingly technological civilization. This threat is exacerbated by Net Zero policies which have increased use of critical metals for clean energy technologies. At present, demand is exceeding supply for some critical metals, rapidly leading to global geopolitical tensions that are further aggravated by the heterogeneous global distribution of metal deposits mineable under current economic, social, and environmental constraints. Western countries, the most committed to reach Net Zero by 2050, lack the stable supply chains for critical metals to manufacture solar panels, wind turbines, and electrical vehicles and are losing the energy security to manufacture them. The increasing demand over supply has led to unprecedented rises in the prices of Cu, Ag, Au, and other metals. Survival of modern industrialized civilization requires conservation of critical metals via commercial recycling. Increased metal prices may allow lower grade ores from greater depths to be mined from existing mining leases, but these will require increased energy to exploit metals with increased waste an additional environmental issue.

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