Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions, Population, and Renewable Electricity in India: An ARDL Approach

Mamon Adam Maarof

doi:10.53941/gssd.2026.100026

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic relationships among economic growth, CO₂ emissions, population, and renewable electricity generation in India using annual data for 2004–2024 and temporally disaggregated quarterly series constructed for 2004Q1–2024Q4. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework to investigate short-run dynamics and test for the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. Unit root tests confirm the suitability of the ARDL approach. The Bounds Test does not provide sufficient statistical evidence of a long-run levels relationship among CO₂ emissions, economic growth, population, and renewable electricity generation. The short-run results indicate that economic growth has a positive and statistically significant effect on CO₂ emissions, suggesting continued environmental pressure associated with rising economic activity and reliance on conventional energy sources. Population changes also exhibit a dynamic pattern, with a negative and statistically significant contemporaneous effect and a positive and statistically significant first-lag effect, indicating that demographic changes may influence emissions with a time lag. Renewable electricity generation has a positive and statistically significant contemporaneous association with CO₂ emissions, which may reflect the transitional nature of India’s energy system, where renewable capacity expands alongside rising energy demand and continued dependence on conventional sources. The error-correction coefficient is negative and statistically significant, but its interpretation is treated cautiously because the Bounds Test does not confirm a long-run relationship. Diagnostic and stability tests indicate that the estimated specification is statistically adequate and structurally stable. The findings highlight the importance of renewable energy investment, energy efficiency, and integrated policies to support economic growth while reducing CO₂ emissions.

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